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SESK: Stuff Everyone Should Know · sesk.info/ai-correlation-not-causation

Why does a predictive correlation not prove causation?

A third factor can cause the observed association.

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  1. Correlation is always random
  2. Association can come from a confounder ✔
  3. Models cannot measure variables

Why: Two variables may change together without either causing the other. A confounder, selection process, or coincidence can create the pattern, so causal claims need stronger design and evidence.

Huh, didn't know that: Designed experiments help isolate causal effects by controlling how factors change.

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Umbrellas correlate with rain, but mine still cannot control the weather.
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References

Answer: Association can come from a confounder. Two variables may change together without either causing the other. A confounder, selection process, or coincidence can create the pattern, so causal claims need stronger design and evidence.

  1. NIST Engineering Statistics Handbook: Experimental Design www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/ppc/section1/ppc136.htm
    It is possible for two variables to be associated with each other without one of them causing the observed behavior
    Checked 2026-10-10.

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