In a survey of 1,300+ marathoners, what best predicted slowing down late in the race?

Starting out at a risky, too-fast pace.

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  1. Being very competitive
  2. Starting at a risky, too-fast pace ✔
  3. Having run many marathons

Why: Runners who admitted starting at a pace they probably couldn't hold slowed the most, even after accounting for training and experience. Pick a pace you can keep, then speed up late if you feel good.

Huh, didn't know that: Researchers tested five mindsets, including competitiveness and willingness to suffer, and risky pacing stood out.

The dad joke
Why did the runner sprint the first mile? He wanted to get the tired part over with early.
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References

Answer: Starting at a risky, too-fast pace. Runners who admitted starting at a pace they probably couldn't hold slowed the most, even after accounting for training and experience. Pick a pace you can keep, then speed up late if you feel good.

  1. Frontiers in Psychology: Risk Taking Runners Slow More in the Marathon www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00333/full
    RTP proved a substantial predictor even in regression models controlling for the other psychological constructs, training, experience, and other known pacing correlates.
    Checked 2026-10-12.

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